Soccer 1X2 Probability Calculator
Quick Facts
- Inputs: expected goals (xG) for home and away teams.
- Outputs: 1X2 probabilities and fair odds.
- Includes top correct score probabilities.
How to use
Steps
Enter expected goals for both teams, adjust the max goals cap if needed, then read the 1X2 probabilities and fair odds. Use the correct score list to sanity check likely results.
Formula & definitions
Poisson model: P(k goals) = e^(-xG) × xG^k / k!
- Expected Goals (xG)
- Estimated goals scored on average, used to model scorelines.
- Fair Odds
- 1 divided by probability, showing the no-vig price.
Soccer Match Outcome Calculator (1X2)
Using 0-6 goals captures 99.9% of total probability.
Match Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 45.05% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 26.20% | 3.82 |
| Away | 28.66% | 3.49 |
Top Correct Scores
- Home 1-1 Away · 12.45%
- Home 1-0 Away · 11.32%
- Home 2-1 Away · 9.03%
- Home 0-1 Away · 8.59%
- Home 2-0 Away · 8.21%
- Home 0-0 Away · 7.81%
This calculator uses a Poisson model based on your expected goals (xG) inputs. Update the xG values to reflect injuries, team form, or lineup changes.
Updated 08 Apr 2026 SAST
Why it matters
Use the Soccer 1X2 Probability Calculator to sanity-check prices, remove guesswork, and make faster decisions when odds move.
Example
Example: Home xG 1.6, Away xG 1.1. The calculator shows home win probability, draw probability, away win probability, and fair odds.
Who it's for
Built for soccer fans in South Africa comparing odds and value across sportsbooks.
Use cases
- Estimate true prices before comparing sportsbook odds.
- Create a quick probability baseline for match analysis.
Practical tips
- Verify the odds are still live before relying on the output.
- Treat the results as guidance, not a guarantee.
- Compare multiple sportsbooks to validate value.
FAQs
What is xG?
It is the expected number of goals based on shot quality and volume.
Are the odds fair odds?
Yes, they are derived directly from probability with no margin.
Can I use this for any soccer league?
Yes, it is league-agnostic as long as you have xG estimates.